Occasionally my brother and I find a topic that gets us riled up and we end up arguing about it online for an irrational amount of time. Such was the case when I pointed out to him late last week that the Florida Marlins started the baseball offseason by trading Mike Jacobs to Kansas City for Leo Nunez, a relief pitcher.
I argued that while Jacobs is certainly not a superstar, his 32-homer, 93 RBI season should have garnered more than a middle reliever in return. He pointed to Jacobs’ sub-.300 on base percentage and lack of history as a 30-plus homer guy in saying that the Marlins got about as much as they could.
The following conversation ensued:
Andy: A 32 homer corner infielder for a set up guy that pitched 45 innings last year?
Tony: They have a glut of 1B prospects, including one that apparently is possibly going to be a 30-40 HR guy WITH average.
Andy: I have no issue with trading him.
Andy: I have issue with trading him for some 40 inning MAYBE setup guy.
Andy: That’s all they could get for Jacobs?
Andy: The Twins should have offered up Jose Mijares or Jesse Crain or … both … or some other mid-level pitching minor leaguer that’s close to ready and gotten Jacobs for that.A 30 homer guy for a middle reliever?
Andy: Not proclaiming Mike Jacobs Babe Ruth or anything like that, but what would the Twins lineup look like with a 30 homer DH? For that price?
Andy: Jacobs must be a first-class dick or something.
Tony: Yes, the Twins are real likely to go out and get a 30 HR guy who can’t hit his weight. Sounds like their strategy.
Tony: Not saying it shouldn’t maybe be. But….
Andy: .260? From a 30 homer guy?
Andy: I’ll take that.
Tony: yeah, if he could consistently hit that.
Tony: Nice OBP, too, even when he did hit that.
Tony: You and I might take that–but that’s not what the Twins want.
Tony: And Nunez can supposedly throw in the bid 90’s.
Andy: so can dozens and dozens of pitchers
Tony: And middle bullpen is important. If the Twins had one, they would have won the division by 5 games this year.
Tony: Nunez is 25 years old.
Andy: Great.
Andy: There are a lot of 25 year old relievers out there… I’d rather have Jacobs.
Andy: He put all those numbers together last year on a Marlins team with a payroll somewhere around $650,000.
Andy: In the Twins lineup he’d be protected – and if the Twins had another power bat in their lineup they would have won the division by 5 games also.
Tony: eh…debateable.
Tony: they also might have lost a few more games when Jacobs struck out in an important situation.
Tony: I don’t think protecting Jacobs would close the apparent holes in his swing.
Andy: I’m not trying to make Jacobs into A-Rod or Man-Ram or Bab-Rut – I’m just saying that he is a more than competent bat that was worth more than a mid-to-short reliever, even if the reliever is 25 with a 95 mile per hour fastball — I will take the bat over a bullpen arm any time – you can get competent bullpen arms more easily than you can get 30-homer guys in this, the post-steroid era of Major League Baseball.
Tony: The Twins fail at getting both competent bullpen arms and 30 HR guys.
Andy: What?
Andy: The Twins generally have an overload of competent bullpen guys.
Tony: And I still think you are overvaluing the value of players in a non-trading deadline deal.
Andy: Last year was not the trend.
Andy: Generally the Twins have had one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Tony: Whatever. Fine. The Twins failed this year to field a competent bullpen with Neshek hurt–be it fatigue or whatever.
Tony: That is all that I care about right now.
Andy: And Crain coming back from injury and Perkins coming back from injury…
Tony: That and next year – how the bullpen has to be a question mark for next year.
Tony: Crain can stay hurt.
Tony: Perkins is a starter.
Tony: And will whine if he’s not.
Andy: Yes, Perkins is a starter, but he came up as a reliever and probably would still be one if he wasn’t hurt.
Tony: huh? Still would be what if he wasn’t hurt? I didn’t think Perkins was hurt.
Tony: And he was a starter in the minors.
Andy: Perkins missed the last half of the 2007 season with some sort of arm thing – and the reason they made him a starter in the majors this year was because they wanted him to pitch on a regular schedule and not on the some nights on, some nights off schedule of a reliever.
Andy: Maybe so, but I don’t think it would have happened this season.
Tony: I do.
Tony: Who else would have started?
Tony: Think they would have kept Livan?
Andy: I think Perkins’ best role is as a reliever long-term.
Andy: He’s a mediocre starter – a five-and-fly guy.
Tony: I think Perkins is a #4 or #5 starter.
Andy: I think he’s a #5 or #6 starter
Tony: I think he has the stuff, and I think he’ll pout if he’s not a starter.
Tony: He’ll probably sign a huge contract in a couple years with some team that’s too stupid to know better.
Andy: If the Twins had an opportunity to trade Perkins and Blackburn for something worthwhile I’d do it in a heartbeat.
Tony: I agree. But I don’t think they would get much for them.
Andy: Keep Liriano, Slowey and Baker and count on the guys coming up from the minors to fill out the other roles.
Tony: Maybe a .245, 20-25 HR guy like Jacobs.
Andy: Hell, if the Royals can get a 30 homer guy for a middle reliever then the Twins should be able to get a 40 homer, 150 rbi guy for one of those mediocre starters.
Andy: 20-25 homer guy, pshaw. Jacobs is still young and ascending.
Tony: I think you are vastly over estimating the value of MLB guys that aren’t major stars.
Tony: pshaw
Tony: he has one year of 30+ HR on his resume.
Tony: He’s 28 years old–he’s already at his prime.
Andy: Bah
Tony: And his average dropped 15-20 points this year in getting to 30 HR, AND his OBP was sub .300.
Tony: This has been a fun morning of debate. I like beating you in debates like this. We should have a show on KFAN of me beating you in debates.
Andy: Yeah, that’s a great thought except you haven’t come close to beating me in a debate this morning.
Tony: Please. Mike Jacobs is overrated and you know it.
Andy: You sound like someone who’s disagreeing just to be disagreeable.
Andy: Jacobs could be overrated and still be worth more than a guy who threw 45 innings in the majors last year.
Tony: No, I agree that the Twins could maybe have used him.
Tony: But he’s better than the kind of guy that we’re used to picking up.
Tony: I think he also is due a huge raise in arbitration.
Tony: Since a guy who hit .245, got on base less than 30% of the time, and struck out 100+ times is probably worth like $10 million a year in MLB.
Andy: He is not going to get $10M this year.
Tony: No, but he’ll get a big raise.
Andy: Maybe $4M or $5M … maybe. I’m not writing him into the hall of fame – at least not in ink – but he is a major upgrade for KC on offense and all they gave up was a guy who pitched 45 innings for them. I’m sorry – Florida got screwed and you lose the debate.
Tony: You’re delusional if you think all he gets is $4-5 million in arbitration.
Tony: The Royals will offer $4-5, he’ll want $6-7, and the judge will side with him.
Andy: You’re high.
Andy: (Inserts link for story indicating the salary range Jacobs might command in 2008)
Andy: Search for Jacobs is eligible
Andy: Guys’ salaries don’t jump that high in their first year of arbitration when their numbers are what Jacobs’ are.
Tony: hmmm…didn’t realize his salary was that low right now.
Andy: Hmm. I win again.
Tony: Guess it’s because he was in the minors for so long because he’s NOT THAT GOOD.
Andy: He homered once every 14.9 at bats, the 10th best mark in the Major Leagues…
Andy: You’ve got nothing left. Admit it. I win.
Tony: How often did he get on base?
Tony: How often did he strike out?
Andy: Runs produced – 93 RBI on a team with a total salary lower than he’ll make for KC next year…
Andy: I don’t care if his on base percentage is .299 if he hits a homer every 14 at bats.
Andy: Now you just sound angry.
Tony: An arbitration eligible, average at best 1B (overloaded position) is not worth much in a trade two days after the season finishes–and even less come arbitration time.
Tony: You don’t care that a guy got on base less than 30% of the time?
Andy: 93 RBI
Andy: 32 homers
Tony: Christ, think if he could hit how many RBI he would have had.
Andy: Think how he might hit in a lineup of real major leaguers?
Tony: How does payroll determine talent level?
Tony: The Marlins were in the playoff race until late in the season.
Andy: Oh, come on.
Tony: They have Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, and a couple other decent players.
Andy: They would have made the playoffs if they had an offense that could score.
Andy: No, they had Uggla, Hanley and Jacobs… maybe Cantu for part of the season was legit.
Andy: You make it sound like I think the guy should have a golden bat – all I was arguing was that the Marlins got screwed getting nothing but a middle reliever for him.
Tony: Florida Marlins–14th in Runs scored in the Majors.
Andy: They could have kept a 30 homer guy in their lineup, apparently for $3.5 million, instead they traded him for a middle reliever so they could bring up from the minor leagues some “potential” stud.
Andy: Guess what happens with a lot of potential studs.
Tony: 5th in the NL.
Andy: Alex Gordon?
Andy: Blah, blah.
Andy: The Marlins are continuing their tradition of being cheap.
Andy: Middle releiver
Andy: 45 innings
Tony: Cantu was better than Jacobs.
Andy: for a guy who hit 30+ homers and 93 rbi
Andy: Cantu was better than Jacobs?
Tony: .277 with 29 HR or .245 with 32?
Andy: Great.
Tony: 95 RBI or 92?
Andy: So with Jacobs, Cantu (if he doesn’t go back to sucking), Ramiriez and Uggla you’ve got the makings of a solid lineup next year.
Tony: .327 OBP or .299?
Andy: Instead you trade one of those cogs because he’s due arbitration for a middle reliever.
Andy: In hopes that some guy from the minors, who could end up being great or could end up being a prima donna flop, can come up and replace him.
Andy: $3.5 million.
Tony: because he’s due arbitration and because you’ve got some minor league stuff that’s ready, apparently.
Andy: The Marlins say they are committed to increasing their salary this year.
Andy: But they go and trade a guy who is going to make $3.5 milliion.
Andy: The Marlins are a fraud.
Tony: Great, so they plug in a theoretically better, cheaper option at 1B, and spend that money on pitching (starting, since you now have a middle reliever), and another bat for the OF or something.
Andy: Or they keep their payroll down to the level of their revenue sharing revenue again.
Tony: Yes, that’s more likely. I won’t debate that.
Tony: Just like it is in MN–where they would rather keep the payroll down, not pay an arbitration eligible 1B who might make a crappy DH, and spend $2 million to sign some over the hill sack of crap that they will cut by July.
Andy: Their payroll hasn’t been $40 M since 2005.
Andy: $40M
Andy: The Twins payroll was higher than that this year after getting rid of Santana and Hunter
Andy: $22M last year.
Andy: $22M last year and they are talking about trading Kevin Gregg and Scott Olsen also.
Tony: Yeah, the Marlins management is [taking advantage of the situation], no doubt.
Tony: Just tried to find who the 1B was–might be a AA guy. I thought he was a better prospect–that’s what I get for believing that douchebag with the baseball card blog.
Andy: At one point the Marlins were at least looking at a starting pitcher prospect from KC with a 95 MPH fastball – I could have swallowed that a lot more than I can swallow the middle reliever.
Andy: Former UM standout Gaby Sanchez is apparently the prospect.
Tony: yeah, that’s the guy.
Andy: Hasn’t hit more than 17 homers in the minors
Andy: Guy hits for good average, but he’s not at all a power guy at this point.
Andy: Hasn’t played AAA
Andy: Sorry – this adds to my belief this was yet another salary dump for the marlins
Andy: 06, they received $31M in revenue sharing for a payroll of $15.9M; 2008, they received $25M in revenue sharing for a $22M payroll.
Andy: That is wrong.
Andy: Revenue sharing was not meant to line the owner’s pockets.
Tony: Yeah, that weakens that part of my argument. But I still don’t think Jacobs was worth a whole lot more than a solid middle reliever.
Andy: The Florida Marlins are a disgrace.
Tony: I never would have argued that.
Tony: I don’t think the Twins should have given up more to get Jacobs, though. I don’t think he’s the kind of guy that would help them.
Andy: No, but the Twins apparently could have given up a guy like Jose Mijares or something similar and gotten Jacobs – and for that price I’d have to consider it.
Andy: 32 homers for $3.5M?
Andy: For a reliever?
Andy: I’d still do it in a heartbeat.
Tony: .299 OBP for $3.5 million? We already have better than that for less. Go spend $5 million and get 25 HR and a .340 OBP.
Andy: Anyone in particular you’d be targeting for that who would be available?
Andy: Most teams would keep players that produce that for that little.
Tony: No, I don’t know who would be.
Andy: Largely because the only team willing to dump a guy like that is Florida.
Tony: Although, I keep hearing that a guy like Atkins might be available, or the guy from Seattle–both cost more, but also help a hell of a lot more.
Andy: That might be true – but yeah, they’ll have to give up more and they’ll have to pay more.
Tony: Still what I’d rather see them do.
Tony: I don’t want them to spend $100 million–but $50 or $60 would be nice.
Andy: I don’t disagree. But based on what this team has done in the past the Twins are more likely to go the Jacobs route… and Jacobs would be a helluva lot better than most of the guys they have signed as free agents for that price in the past…
Andy: That said, moot point at this point.
Andy: The Royals already got to screw the Marlins.
Tony: Ah, even Jacobs is no where near the route that the Twins have a history of going. Not nearly old enough, or on a far enough down the downside of his career.
Andy: Perhaps true.
I think the Marlins got the better end of this deal.